High Science Logo Pin 
A top financial office in Pennsylvania is questioning the revenue estimates presented by Governor Josh Shapiro for his plan to legalize adult-use cannabis in the state, suggesting the figures are overly optimistic and not grounded in realistic timelines.
In his 2024-2025 budget proposal, Governor Shapiro outlined a plan to generate $14.8 million from recreational marijuana taxes in the first fiscal year following legalization, with revenue projections increasing to $250 million annually by the 2027-2028 fiscal year. The administration’s estimate assumes that a regulated retail cannabis market would launch in early 2025.
However, a recent analysis from the state’s Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) pushes back on these numbers. According to the IFO, the governor’s timeline for implementation is “aggressive,” and the projected tax revenue might not align with how long it typically takes for a legal cannabis market to get off the ground. The office pointed to other states as examples, where it often takes over a year between legislation passing and retail sales beginning.
The report also noted that even once sales do begin, it usually takes time for the market to scale up and generate significant tax revenue. As a result, the IFO suggested that Pennsylvania is unlikely to reach the $250 million mark within the time frame outlined by the administration.
Governor Shapiro’s proposal involves a 20 percent wholesale tax on recreational cannabis products. While the IFO didn’t directly reject the concept of legalization or the tax rate itself, it emphasized the importance of managing expectations and building a revenue model that reflects real-world market development trends.
Despite the fiscal disagreement, momentum for cannabis reform in Pennsylvania appears to be building. Shapiro is the first Pennsylvania governor to openly advocate for full legalization, and support is growing in the legislature. In fact, lawmakers in both the House and Senate have introduced legalization bills this session, some of which include similar tax structures and equity provisions.
Legalization advocates argue that ending cannabis prohibition in Pennsylvania would bring multiple benefits—generating new tax revenue, creating jobs, and addressing social justice concerns tied to past cannabis enforcement. They also emphasize that surrounding states like New Jersey and Maryland have already legalized cannabis, and Pennsylvania risks falling behind in both revenue and regulation.
As budget talks continue, the debate between the governor’s office and the Independent Fiscal Office reflects a broader conversation about how best to design a legal cannabis market that is not only fair and efficient but also realistic in its economic expectations.
For more on topics like these, check this link out PENNSYLVANIA SENATOR PUSHES TO LEGALIZE CANNABIS AND INVEST IN THE FUTURE
